Three New Polls Shatter The Myth That The Presidential Election Is Tightening

Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 09:25 pm

Three new polls, one national and two states, have killed the Republican hopes that the presidential election is tightening.

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll of New Hampshire shows Hillary Clinton with a 9 point lead:

NBC/WSJ/Marist of NH
HRC 45
Trump 36
Johnson 10
Stein 4

Was HRC +2 in Sept

2way: HRC 47, Trump 39 – was HRC +1 in Sept

Oct 20-24, LVs

— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) October 26, 2016

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll of Nevada reveals a tie between Clinton and Trump:

NBC/WSJ/Marist of NH
HRC 45
Trump 36
Johnson 10
Stein 4

Was HRC +2 in Sept

2way: HRC 47, Trump 39 – was HRC +1 in Sept

Oct 20-24, LVs

— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) October 26, 2016

The AP-GfK Poll has Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 14 points nationally 51%-37%, “The AP-GfK poll finds that Clinton has secured the support of 90 percent of likely Democratic voters, and also has the backing of 15 percent of more moderate Republicans. Just 79 percent of all Republicans surveyed say they are voting for their party’s nominee.”

Earlier in the day, two Bloomberg polls that had Trump leading Florida by 2 points, and cutting Clinton’s New Hampshire lead in half gave Republicans a bit of hope that the presidential election might be tightening, but the reality is that voting is already underway in 37 states. There are very few undecided voters remaining.

Outside of tracking polls, Donald Trump hasn’t had a polling lead since July. Besides his brief July bump, Trump hasn’t led Clinton in national polling since May. What the media and Republicans don’t want to tell you is that this presidential election has been remarkably consistent.

There is nothing in the polling to suggest that the election is tightening, or that Trump has significantly improved his odds of winning.

Those who are looking for a tightening in the polls should keep dreaming, because right now, it’s not happening.

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Jason Easley

Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.

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Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association

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