Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 09:15 pm
Donald Trump was up real late last night claiming victory in the first presidential debate last night. And he brought evidence in the form of some online poll results, something at least one observer, Kurt Eichenwald, found “pathetic and nuts.”
Yes, Donald Trump was struggling last night to find hope after a dismal debate performance, tweeting just this morning that we should “enjoy” his “Great debate poll numbers.”
Perhaps the best indicator of victory, however, is the response of the markets, and according to Bloomberg, the markets think Hillary Clinton won, and they have proof:
The markets think Hillary Clinton won #debatenight https://t.co/U9gUGHYgZV pic.twitter.com/4j0M5xqe1K
— Bloomberg (@business) September 27, 2016
Bloomberg reports that “Financial markets judged the first of three American presidential debates a win for Hillary Clinton, as Mexico’s peso rallied from a record low and U.S. stock index futures rose.” The peso’s rebound, “the biggest gain in three weeks,” is seen as a strong indicator:
“The general impression is that Trump’s chance is lower after this debate, and that is good for the Mexican peso, and not for haven currencies such as the yen,” said Ulrich Leutchmann, head of currency strategy at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt.
Bloomberg Politics tells us that “Risk appetite improved as traders judged that the possibility of a Trump presidency was receding, with the Mexican peso surging more than 2 percent against the dollar as havens from gold to Treasuries retreated.”
The response of the peso will be seen as especially delicious by some. As Justin Wolfers explained at The New York Times TheUpshot,
The value of the dollar relative to the Mexican peso — which has come to be the financial price most closely associated with Mr. Trump’s electoral fortunes — also fell sharply during the debate, perhaps a sign that traders don’t believe that Mr. Trump will get a chance to raise trade barriers with Mexico.
Or walls, perhaps…
Trump is supposed to be the economic guy, the one most Americans trust to do right by the economy, even though all the experts say Trump will be a disaster for the economy.
The markets agree with the economic experts, and last night amounts to a heavy sigh of relief from around the world, at Hillary Clinton’s strong showing. A slump later this morning does not negate what Bloomberg calls a “global rally fueled by Hillary Clinton’s performance in the first American presidential debate.”
Bloomberg goes on to cite Jasper Lawler, an analyst at CMC Markets in London as saying, “Had Trump been stronger then maybe we would have seen a stronger downside reaction in the market.”
Online polls must bow to the markets. Whatever claims the oft-bankrupted Trump might make for his economic prowess, the markets debunked in their reaction to Hillary Clinton’s strong showing in Trump’s humbling at Hofstra.
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