There are new indications that the Republican hold on several House seats is slipping as the nation heads into the 2016 presidential election.
Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report wrote:
Two GOP incumbents moved into more vulnerable categories in the latest Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call ratings. Rep. Frank Guinta moves from Tilts Republican to Tossup in New Hampshire’s 1st District, while Rep. Rod Blum of Iowa joins Nevada Rep. Cresent Hardy in the Tilts Democratic category from Tossup.
State Sen. Morgan Carroll should give GOP Rep. Mike Coffman a strong challenge in a presidential year. The 6th District race moves from Favored Republican to Leans Republican. And in California’s 36th District, there is no evidence that Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz is in significant danger. His race moves to Safe Democrat.
In New Jersey, Democratic strategists believe GOP Rep. Scott Garrett is uniquely vulnerable due to an evolving district dominated by Bergen County and after private comments he made about the National Republican Congressional Committee’s support of gay candidates. It’s up to Democrats to prove this race will be different than the last six, but we’re moving the race out of Safe Republican to Favored Republican.
It would be stunning if Democrats did not pick up House seats in 2016. The larger and diverse presidential electorate will benefit Democrats. The Republican House majority is over inflated because of the 2014 midterm results. The GOP House bubble is due for some deflation, and with Republicans pouring their money and resources into Senate and White House campaigns, there will be plenty of vulnerable House Republicans in Democratic voting districts that will be ripe for the picking.
A massive Democratic landslide victory would be necessary for them to take back the House, but the possibility of cutting Boehner’s majority in half is realistic. House races are discussed less than they should be, but there are opportunities available for Democratic pickups.
The amount of seats that Democrats could gain will depend on the strength of the Democratic nominee. A very strong Democratic nominee will have a down-ballot impact on House races. A weaker nominee increases the possibility of ballot splitting. The impact that Hillary Clinton could have on House elections is one of the many reasons why House Republicans are devoting the time and resources to partisan investigations of Benghazi and her emails.
If you want to understand why House Republicans are so desperate to stop Hillary Clinton, keep in mind that a strong Clinton candidacy could cost several of them their jobs in 2016.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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