Last updated on July 17th, 2023 at 06:09 pm
A string of recent polls has shown Donald Trump continuing to gain support, and he has surged to the front of the crowded Republican presidential field. While Trump’s gains have been impressive, he is still only commanding between one-fifth and one-fourth of the GOP vote in most polls. In a 17 candidate field that is sufficient to put him out in front, but it doesn’t necessarily make him the inevitable nominee, as many Republican voters still have reservations about Trump.
While the press has been fixated on Trump’s rise in the Republican race, less attention has been directed towards Sanders’ surge in the Democratic race. According to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Sanders has gained 26 percentage points on Hillary Clinton in the past month. That is a remarkable gain in 30 days, although it should be noted that Sanders still trails 59-25 in that contest, compared to 75-15, a month ago.
Sanders, unlike Trump, is not leading his party’s primary. However, his polling gains are actually occurring at a faster pace than Trump’s advances, and he is commanding about the same level of support within his party as Trump is, though in a much smaller field of candidates.
Trump’s momentum is largely confined to inside the Republican primary electorate. His surge has not translated into general election viability. A recent Quinnipiac University poll found that in a national race, Sanders would beat Trump 45-37 percent. Hillary Clinton would defeat Trump by an even greater 48-36 margin.
Trump’s increase in polling support has often been called a “surge”, whereas Bernie’s momentum has sometimes been coined the “Bernie bubble” rather than the “Sanders surge” as if to imply that the bubble is not sustainable and will eventually pop.
Yet a deeper look at both candidates suggests that Trump’s momentum may be less sustainable than Sanders’ momentum is. Beneath Trump’s “surge” in popularity he supports decidedly negative popularity ratings with voters in general, and barely breaks even among Republican voters.
Political analyst Nate Silver noted in late July, that in terms of favorable/unfavorable ratings, Trump ranks as only the 13th most well-liked GOP candidate by Republicans. Silver derisively referred to Trump as the “Nickelback” of GOP candidates, comparing the presidential candidate to a widely loathed rock band that has a small cadre of passionately devoted followers.
By contrast, Sanders is well-liked within his own party, and not disliked by the general public in the way that Trump is. In this way, Sanders has room to grow, while Trump is likely to hit a ceiling of support, before he eventually “jumps the shark” and becomes an also ran. The one thing limiting Sanders’ potential rise is that he, unlike Trump, faces a formidable opponent in his own party. While Hillary Clinton’s favorable numbers have declined some among the national pool of voters, she remains popular with Democratic voters.
Given Trump’s marginal favorable to unfavorable ratings, both within and outside his party’s base, his “surge” may be ephemeral. Sanders, by contrast, has more sustainable polling numbers that could portend continued momentum into the months ahead. Neither candidate should be viewed as the favorite to win their party’s nomination. However, while Trump’s surge is gaining most of the media attention, Sanders is the more likely of the two men to remain politically relevant in the Spring of 2016.
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